US dollar index rebound exerts pressure on metal prices; SHFE tin prices may fluctuate around 264,000 yuan/mt in the afternoon [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on June 16, 2025

Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) opened at 264,430 yuan/mt in the morning session, slightly higher than the previous trading day's closing price of 263,690 yuan/mt. It then maintained a pattern of fluctuating at highs. By midday, prices fluctuated around 264,000 yuan/mt, with relatively cautious market trading and a slight reduction in open interest, reflecting intensified competition between longs and shorts at the current price level.

​​Diverging Global Economic Expectations​​: The US May non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, weakening expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. The rebound in the US dollar index has put pressure on metal prices. Meanwhile, the World Bank has lowered its 2025 global economic growth forecast to 3.5%, weighing on the demand outlook for industrial metals.

​​High Prices Dampen Restocking​​: After tin prices rebounded to above 260,000 yuan/mt, downstream solder, electronics, and home appliance companies' purchase willingness significantly weakened, with only just-in-time procurement maintained. The spot market exhibited a pattern of "high premiums and low trading volumes."

​​Weak Terminal Demand​​: Consumer electronics and PV modules have entered the off-season, with order growth rates pulling back. Although demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) remains resilient, the overall increase in demand is insufficient to offset the reduction in supply, leading to heightened expectations for inventory buildup in the market.

In the short term, SHFE tin prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend due to the dual pressures of supply disruptions and weak demand: